Odds on Which Head Coach Will be Fired First

September 30, 2018

Job security for head coaches in the NFL is tenuous at best. The “what have you done lately” mentality is pervasive in pro football because as Doug Pederson and the Philadelphia Eagles proved last season, it’s possible to go from 7-9 to Super Bowl Champions in two years.

Impatient owners generally don’t tolerate mediocrity for very long. Marvin Lewis and Jason Garrett, who have combined to win one playoff game in 23 years of coaching, are the outliers. Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll both own Super Bowl rings, and yet each will find themselves planted on the proverbial hot seat if they lose in Week 3.

Nobody wishes any of these guys will be canned (except maybe Garrett), but the reality is one of them will be kicked to the curb sooner than later.

Bill O’Brien +500

The ice beneath O’Brien’s feet isn’t exactly thick, but there’s no way he should be the leader in the unemployment clubhouse. That said, if they lose to the hapless Giants in Week 3, he might want to start boxing up the knickknacks on his office shelves.

Hue Jackson +600

Lookee what Hue did! He won himself a game, moving his career record to a stunningly inept 2-32-1. That’s the good news. The bad news is the Browns might be 3-0 if Hue had started number one overall pick Baker Mayfield from the jump. Instead, he rolled out Tyrod Taylor to, uh, make a point? Keep Mayfield humble? Establish dominance? Yeah, nobody knows. Hue needs to be fired ASAP.

Sean McDermott +750

The Bills are unapologetically going full tank mode. He’s safe until at least 2020.

Jay Gruden and Steve Wilks +1000

Jay may eventually take the fall for not locking up Kirk Cousins with long-term money, but it’s a kinda sorta safe bet he makes it out of 2018 unscathed. Wilks, on the other hand, could be one and done. Why he’s starting the egregiously awful Sam Bradford over rookie Josh Rosen is a riddle wrapped up in an enigma.

Pat Shurmur +1400

Ah yes, the classic retread head coach hired by the out of touch General Manager. Through no fault of his own, Shurmur will forever be associated with the horrifically awful decision to draft a running back over a quarterback when the current starting quarterback is 37 and washed up.

Mike Tomlin +1600

It’s apparent that Tomlin is captaining a sinking ship. The combined egos of Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Big Ben are running amuck. The end result will be Tomlin’s exit.

Pete Carroll and Jason Garrett +2000

The two best hand clappers in the game. Ironically, Garrett has what Pete needs to win – defense and running game. And Carroll has what Jason needs to win – franchise quarterback. Carroll might walk away before the axe falls. As for Garrett, he’s probably secure until Jerry Jones dies, because no coach worth a damn will ever work for a glory seeking narcissist.

Sean McVay +20000

McVay has longer odds than Bill Belichick. No, really. McVay is basically the Ric Flair of NFL head coaches – a stylin’ and profilin’, limousine ridin’, jet flyin’ son-of-a-gun. WOOOOOO!!!!!

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