Don’t look away yet, week 16 and 17 have some real meaning to them. Lets GO!
October 11, 2018
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Don’t look away yet, week 16 and 17 have some real meaning to them. Lets GO!
This episode, it’s all about ATS stats, trends and historical data. I call it Nerd betting.
We cover the Wild Card weekend and National Championship game.
Halfway through the 2018 NFL season and no head coaches have been given a pink slip.
The closest we’ve seen is Arizona firing offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, ironically the third time in 20 months he’s been shown the door. Yikes. This lack of chopping block activity is unacceptable, especially when there are so many decision-making dunderheads roaming sidelines on Sundays. The ax is almost certain to fall at some point, but identifying which guy will be run out of town is always a fun exercise. Here’s a peek at the coaches most likely to be booted:
Sean McDermott +400
The Bills play hard and are not an easy out. Considering the glaring lack of talent on the roster, McDermott has been better than okay. The Bills have a GM problem, not a head coach problem.
Steve Wilks +500
He had to dump his hand-picked choice for offensive coordinator seven weeks into the season. The term “out of his depth” springs to mind.
Frank Reich +750
The Colts are struggling to get wins, but their offense is one of the NFL’s most efficient and their defense is loaded with quality young talent. Four of their next five games are in the division, so
a playoff run could be coming.
Bill O’Brien +1000
Even though the Texans have reeled off five straight victories after an 0-3 start, there’s still a chance they finish 6-10. The reason? Bill O’Brien.
Hue Jackson +1000
The Brownies should be 5-2 instead of 2-4-1, but Hue has done enough to stick around for a couple more months. He’s still an utter buffoon, but a front office packed with even bigger
buffoons can’t see the obvious.
Dirk Koetter +1000
The early season memories of Fitzmagic have disappeared into the ether. Now Koetter must rely on Jameis Winston to save his job. What could possibly go wrong?
Adam Gase +1200
The Fish have allowed 170 points in their last five games, going 1-4 in that stretch. Oh, and Brock Osweiler is the starting quarterback. Hang onto your hats, folks. It’s gonna be a bumpy ride the rest of the way.
Marvin Lewis +1200
It’s safe to assume Lewis will still be coaching the Bengals in the year 2030, at which point he will have compiled an 0-20 playoff record.
Pat Shurmur +1200
His correct decision to go for 2 when trailing by 14 is proof he’s not an idiot. Anyone with grade school level math skills knows he made the right call. Sadly, everyone associated with Monday Night Football is dumber than a 5th grader.
Vance Joseph +1200
All he does for 60 minutes on game day is shake his head in shocked disbelief. All Broncos fans do for 60 minutes on game day is shake their heads in shocked disbelief that Vance hasn’t been fired.
Jason Garrett +1600
Never gonna happen. His role as puppet to puppet master Jerry Jones is more than secure.
Jon Gruden +2500
When a team hires an out-of-touch TV personality who lucked his way into a Super Bowl win 15 years ago thanks to a historically great defense, said team gets what they deserve. The $100 million dollar man might burn out, but he’ll probably do enough to fade away sometime around 2021.
Will Chiefs or Rams go 16-0?
If for no other reason than to put a damper on the smug celebrations perpetrated
every year by the annoying 1972 Miami Dolphins after the last unbeaten falls, it
would be super terrific if either the Chiefs or Rams ran the table, and in turn
staged a serious threat to the Fish’s 17-0 championship season.
Will it happen? Highly unlikely. The Dolphins had it easier, only having to go 14-0
to complete their “perfect” regular season. Finishing 16-0 is an entirely different
beast. Of course, the 2007 Patriots are the only modern era team to pull off the
16-0 sweep, before ultimately suffering a shocking Super Bowl defeat at the
hands of derpface Eli Manning and the rest of the New York Giants.
The road to unblemished glory is filled with cracks and potholes like injuries to
key players, challenging schedules, and the “resting starters” debate that rages
every December for teams that wrap up division titles and top seeds earlier than
For the Chiefs, a pair of significant obstacles stand in their way. First, if they
survive the Week 6 Sunday night showdown in Foxboro against Brady and
Belichick, and don’t trip up against lesser foes, they still have to beat the team
they’re directly competing against for undefeated status in Week 11 when they
travel to Tinseltown to play the Rams. Second, there is the Andy Reid factor,
which should not go overlooked.
Splitting time between the Eagles and Chiefs, Reid has constructed a stellar
coaching legacy over the last 20 years. He is a proven winner and talented
offensive innovator. He’s also a pass-happy curmudgeon who regularly commits
catastrophic clock management blunders. Reid infamously loses at least one game
per season due to laughable ineptitude. At some point, he is going to faceplant
As for the high-flying Rams, all wonder boy coaching savant Sean McVay has to do
is beat the Packers, Saints, Chiefs, Bears, and Eagles to reach the mountaintop.
Now, Green Bay and Philly don’t presently appear to be as imposing as they did in
August, but Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz are both capable of single-handedly
notching wins. LA boasts an electric offense, but like the Chiefs, their defense is
very suspect; especially without cornerback Aqib Talib. If the defense bricks and
either Jared Goff or Todd Gurley has an off day, this Jenga tower will topple.
Smart money says neither the Chiefs nor Rams will go undefeated.
Despite having played in a grand total of 6 NFL games since 2015, wide receiver Josh Gordon is still a thing. Like a bad penny or a stage 5 clinger, he simply won’t go away. That’s because the twenty-car pileup that is the Cleveland Browns franchise finally did something smart and traded the troubled wideout away, brushing their hands clean after years of coddling and a myriad of second, third, and fourth chances.
Gordon could’ve been jettisoned to the dreary doldrums of Buffalo or the desolate desert of Arizona and nobody would’ve cared. Instead, he ended up in New England, which came as no surprise to anyone who pays a modicum of attention to pro pigskin. A collective “of course he’s a Patriot” could be heard earlier this week, followed quickly by an endless stream of speculation and predictions regarding Gordon’s present and future in the land of clam chowder.
Well, as long as Gordon is once again making headlines, it only seems fitting to wager on some fun props in his name.
Active Roster for Pats Week 17?
Believe or not, the Patriots aren’t some cure-all elixir for bad boys. Corey Dillon and Randy Moss were established All-Pro level players when they took their services to New England. Comparing them to Gordon is insulting and absurd. Gordon is merely another flopped wide receiver the Pats are attempting to resurrect, joining the likes of Michael Floyd, Kenny Britt, and Corey Coleman. If he makes it through the season without incident, good for him. Just don’t bet on it.
Suspended During 2018 Season?
Suspended? No. Outright cut? Yes. Gordon is down to his last strike. Belichick is willing to take a risk on a talented field stretcher in order to prevent elite defenses like the Jaguars from eliminating Gronk, and in turn stifling the entire Patriots offense. However, if Gordon shows up late to one practice he’s probably gone. He can’t hide behind the dysfunctional wall that surrounds the Browns anymore. If he slips up, some intrepid reporter will be there to catch it. Good luck, Josh.
Total Games Played in 2018?
Over 9.5 +120
Under 9.5 -160
He’s played in 11 games in five years. It’s obvious he doesn’t really care about football. One of his preferred teams to be traded to was the Cowboys. A Cowboys team that serves up pot and PEDs like cheese and crackers. The strict code of conduct Belichick enforces will get annoying after five or six games. Smart money is on the under.
Job security for head coaches in the NFL is tenuous at best. The “what have you done lately” mentality is pervasive in pro football because as Doug Pederson and the Philadelphia Eagles proved last season, it’s possible to go from 7-9 to Super Bowl Champions in two years.
Impatient owners generally don’t tolerate mediocrity for very long. Marvin Lewis and Jason Garrett, who have combined to win one playoff game in 23 years of coaching, are the outliers. Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll both own Super Bowl rings, and yet each will find themselves planted on the proverbial hot seat if they lose in Week 3.
Nobody wishes any of these guys will be canned (except maybe Garrett), but the reality is one of them will be kicked to the curb sooner than later.
Bill O’Brien +500
The ice beneath O’Brien’s feet isn’t exactly thick, but there’s no way he should be the leader in the unemployment clubhouse. That said, if they lose to the hapless Giants in Week 3, he might want to start boxing up the knickknacks on his office shelves.
Hue Jackson +600
Lookee what Hue did! He won himself a game, moving his career record to a stunningly inept 2-32-1. That’s the good news. The bad news is the Browns might be 3-0 if Hue had started number one overall pick Baker Mayfield from the jump. Instead, he rolled out Tyrod Taylor to, uh, make a point? Keep Mayfield humble? Establish dominance? Yeah, nobody knows. Hue needs to be fired ASAP.
Sean McDermott +750
The Bills are unapologetically going full tank mode. He’s safe until at least 2020.
Jay Gruden and Steve Wilks +1000
Jay may eventually take the fall for not locking up Kirk Cousins with long-term money, but it’s a kinda sorta safe bet he makes it out of 2018 unscathed. Wilks, on the other hand, could be one and done. Why he’s starting the egregiously awful Sam Bradford over rookie Josh Rosen is a riddle wrapped up in an enigma.
Pat Shurmur +1400
Ah yes, the classic retread head coach hired by the out of touch General Manager. Through no fault of his own, Shurmur will forever be associated with the horrifically awful decision to draft a running back over a quarterback when the current starting quarterback is 37 and washed up.
Mike Tomlin +1600
It’s apparent that Tomlin is captaining a sinking ship. The combined egos of Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Big Ben are running amuck. The end result will be Tomlin’s exit.
Pete Carroll and Jason Garrett +2000
The two best hand clappers in the game. Ironically, Garrett has what Pete needs to win – defense and running game. And Carroll has what Jason needs to win – franchise quarterback. Carroll might walk away before the axe falls. As for Garrett, he’s probably secure until Jerry Jones dies, because no coach worth a damn will ever work for a glory seeking narcissist.
Sean McVay +20000
McVay has longer odds than Bill Belichick. No, really. McVay is basically the Ric Flair of NFL head coaches – a stylin’ and profilin’, limousine ridin’, jet flyin’ son-of-a-gun. WOOOOOO!!!!!
Based on NFL headlines that have been peppering media outlets for the last few weeks, one has to wonder if the Pittsburgh Steelers are employing a bevy of former The Young and the Restless writers rather than an analytics department.
When Ben Roethlisbrger isn’t threatening to retire he’s whining about the front office drafting a quarterback. When Antonio Brown isn’t Twitter beefing with ex-Steelers’ employees, he’s a no-show at the practice facility the day after a loss.
And then there’s disgruntled running back Le’Veon Bell, who continues to incinerate game checks by chilling at home after failing to get the bloated contract he desperately wants (and probably deserves). Whether he sits five games, ten games, or the entire 2018 season, it’s painfully clear that Bell won’t be donning the black and gold this time next year.
The Patriots and Eagles have wisely devalued running backs, while archaic franchises living in the 1950s like the Giants draft Saquon Barkley at number two overall when Sam Darnold is still on the board. As such, one of these backwards run teams will presumably defy logic and dump a forklift of cash in Bell’s lap next March. Let’s take a look at the leading candidates.
Do you like to waste money? Okay, then bet the Steelers.
Bell is an obvious fit in Kyle Shanahan’s complex scheme, but the Niners just overpaid Jimmy G, so overpaying a 26-year-old runner with over 1600 touches in five seasons would be a financial misstep. Of course if they did, tons of pundits would stupidly hail them as geniuses
Finally, a team that makes both football and financial sense. Sam Darnold on a rookie deal, promising young receiving corps, an ascending defense, and over $100 million in cap space in 2019. Sharp money should be all over the Jets.
Trade rumors have been swirling around a potential swap with the Pack. The old guard wouldn’t dare deal for Bell, but the new regime might feel compelled in order to maximize Aaron Rodgers’ remaining years. Although, spending money on a capable defense is a much better use of resources.
Cap space isn’t an issue, but new head coach Frank Reich learned in Philly that a three-back rotation can win a Super Bowl. No thanks.
The most Browns thing ever would be dumping Josh Gordon to make room for another malcontent with a spotty off the field record. At least Bell has actually played in the last five years.
ROFL! They just reached for Rashaad Penny in the first round. The final nail in the coffin of the John Schneider/Pete Carroll era would be signing Bell to a massive contract.
Jon Gruden would like nothing more than to trot out four tight ends and ram his RB into the line of scrimmage 40 times a game. There’s a leather helmet with Bell’s name on it waiting in Oakland, er, Las Vegas, um… wherever the hell the Raiders are playing in 2019.
April 10, 2019
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